Ryan MacDonald, Portfolio Manager for the Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund, says that in a world teeming with market worries and broad geopolitical concerns, private real estate is “uniquely boring, in a good way.” He says the market has taken its pain over the last three years through interest rate changes and the market cycle, but now values have receded creating a solid entry point. MacDonald, who also serves as chief investment officer at Bluerock, says that “Entry point is the single biggest driver of future value for private real estate returns,” and he notes that on an inflation-adjusted basis, the market is now approaching valuation levels “not seen since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.”
Sources & Notes
Real Estate Market Data
20–30% Value Decline in Private Real Estate. Inflation-adjusted NCREIF capital values declined materially from peak following the 2022–2023 rate environment. Source: NCREIF / Green Street Advisors, as of Q3 2025.
Inflation-Adjusted Valuations at Post-GFC Levels. NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Capital Value Index, Q1 1995–Q3 2025, inflation-adjusted. Source: NCREIF as of Q3 2025.
NCREIF NPI ~13% Average Annualized Return in Post-Decline Recovery Periods. NCREIF Property Index (NPI) / Morningstar Direct, 1978–Q3 2025.
~80% Drop in New Supply Across Property Types. Construction starts declined sharply across most property types from 2022 peak levels. Source: CBRE Research / CoStar construction pipeline data.
NYSE Listing & Trading Dynamics
CEF Share Price Typically Troughs ~6 Days Post-Listing, Recovers Within 180 Days. Historical analysis of direct-listed closed-end funds. Source: Morningstar CEF database
Spin-Offs Historically Outperform the Market by 10%+. Source: JPMorgan.
Bluerock Track Record — BRG / Blackstone Sale
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT (BRG) Sale to Blackstone. Source: BRG shareholder 145% premium is based on the unaffected closing stock price on September 15, 2021, the date prior to a media article reporting that BRG was exploring strategic options including a sale. BHM’s current implied Net Asset Value estimated of $5.60 is based on the midpoint of the valuation range provided by Duff & Phelps, an independent financial advisor to the Company’s board of directors.
